This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology.

The biggest AI flops of 2024

The past 12 months have been undeniably busy for those working in AI. There have been more successful product launches than we can count, and even Nobel Prizes. But it hasn’t always been smooth sailing.

AI is an unpredictable technology, and the increasing availability of generative models has led people to test their limits in new, weird, and sometimes harmful ways. These were some of 2024’s biggest AI misfires. 

—Rhiannon Williams

If you’re interested in the latest developments in the weird and wonderful world of AI, check out the AI Hype Index—MIT Technology Review’s highly subjective take on what’s for real and what’s just a lot of hallucinatory nonsense. Our latest edition features emotional robotic pets, Pokémon Go, simulated humans, and much more.

Why EVs are (mostly) set for solid growth this year

It looks as though 2025 will be a solid year for electric vehicles—at least outside the United States. (Inside the US, sales will depend on the incoming administration’s policy choices.)

Globally, these cleaner cars and trucks will continue to eat into the market share of gas-guzzlers as costs decline, consumer options expand, and charging stations proliferate.

But ultimately, the fate of EV sales will depend on the particular dynamics within specific regions. Here’s a closer look at what’s likely to steer the sector in the world’s three largest markets: the US, the EU, and China. Read the full story.

—James Temple

This piece is part of MIT Technology Review’s What’s Next series, looking across industries, trends, and technologies to give you a first look at the future. You can read the rest of them here.

How wind tech could help decarbonize cargo shipping

Inhabitants of the Marshall Islands—a chain of coral atolls in the center of the Pacific Ocean—rely on sea transportation for almost everything. For millennia they sailed largely in canoes, but much of their seafaring movement today involves big, bulky, diesel-fueled cargo ships that are heavy polluters.

They’re not alone. Cargo shipping is responsible for about 3% of the world’s annual greenhouse-­gas emissions, and at the current rate of growth, the global industry could account for 10% of emissions by 2050.

The islands have been disproportionately experiencing the consequences of human-made climate change: warming waters, more frequent extreme weather, and rising sea levels. Now its residents are exploring a surprisingly traditional method of decarbonizing its fleets. Read the full story.

—Sofia Quaglia

This story is from the forthcoming magazine edition of MIT Technology Review, set to go live on January 6—it’s all about the exciting breakthroughs happening in the world right now. If you don’t already, subscribe to receive future copies.

The must-reads

I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology.

1 A Tesla Cybertruck exploded at Trump’s Las Vegas hotel
Authorities are investigating if the incident is linked to a similar attack in New Orleans. (The Guardian)
+ The Cybertruck’s driver was killed, while seven others were injured. (Reuters)
+ Both vehicles were rented using the same app, called Turo. (Insider $)
+ The New Orleans suspect appears to be inspired by the Islamic State. (Economist $)

2 What five years of covid has taught us
How prepared we are for future pandemics hinges on governments’ willingness to listen. (New Scientist $)+ Covid exposed how vulnerable global health systems are. (The Guardian)

3 America’s tech industry needs imported labor
Escalating tensions over the future of the H-1B visa lays that bare. (WSJ $)
+ Thousands of overseas workers are trapped by the US immigration system. (Insider $)
+ Tech workers had a pretty rough 2024. (Ars Technica)

4 Elon Musk has support in his legal battle with OpenAI
Two major tech investors have joined his cause. (WP $)

5 A science journal’s editors have resigned over its use of AI
The Journal of Human Evolution’s board is protesting how owner Elsevier used te technology to format papers. (Ars Technica)
+ The world’s most expensive artist isn’t a fan of AI, either. (The Guardian)

6 How much will it cost to live forever?
Investment in longevity firms has dropped in recent years. (FT $)
+ Maybe you will be able to live past 122. (MIT Technology Review)

7 Podcasts aren’t restricted to just audio any more
Aspiring podcasters better be prepared to appear on video these days. (NY Mag $)

8 We’re on the verge of living in the ocean
Within five years, this ambitious project hopes to establish permanent underwater colonies. (IEEE Spectrum)

9 What the year ahead holds for tech
Elon Musk attempting to buy TikTok appears pretty inevitable. (The Information $)

10 How to spend less time staring at your phone in 2025
Take back control and break the habit. (Wired $)
+ How to log off. (MIT Technology Review)

Quote of the day

“It’s nothing other than business as usual for me.”

—Sarah Perl, a Los Angeles-based content creator, tells the Wall Street Journal why she’s not worried about the looming prospect of a US-wide TikTok ban.

The big story

This fuel plant will use agricultural waste to combat climate change

February 2022

A startup called Mote plans to build a new type of fuel-producing plant in California’s fertile Central Valley that would, if it works as hoped, continually capture and bury carbon dioxide, starting from 2024.

It’s among a growing number of efforts to commercialize a concept first proposed two decades ago as a means of combating climate change, known as bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration, or BECCS.

It’s an ambitious plan. However, there are serious challenges to doing BECCS affordably and in ways that reliably suck down significant levels of carbon dioxide. Read the full story. 

—James Temple

We can still have nice things

A place for comfort, fun and distraction to brighten up your day. (Got any ideas? Drop me a line or  skeet ’em at me.)

+ Feel like time’s running away with you? To slow it down, you need to shake things up.
+ Sicily’s cathedral of Monreale houses Italy’s largest Byzantine-style mosaics, and they’re truly awe-inspiring.
+ If you’re looking for some sci-fi short stories to get your year off to a literary start, look no further.
+ How to teach yourself to love winter—even when it’s really freezing.

Read more

Inhabitants of the Marshall Islands—a chain of coral atolls in the center of the Pacific Ocean—rely on sea transportation for almost everything: moving people from one island to another, importing daily necessities from faraway nations, and exporting their local produce. For millennia they sailed largely in canoes, but much of their seafaring movement today involves big, bulky, diesel-fueled cargo ships that are heavy polluters. 

They’re not alone, of course. Cargo shipping is responsible for about 3% of the world’s annual greenhouse-­gas emissions, and at the current rate of growth, the global industry could account for 10% of emissions by 2050. 

Marshallese shipping represents just a drop in the ocean of global greenhouse-gas pollution; larger, more industrially developed countries are responsible for far more. But the islands have been disproportionately experiencing the consequences of human-made climate change: warming waters, more frequent extreme weather, and rising sea levels.

All this has created a sense of urgency for people like Alson Kelen, who lives and works in Majuro, the islands’ capital. He’s the founder of Waan Aelõñ, a Marshallese canoeing organization that is focused on keeping the region’s ancient and more environmentally sustainable maritime traditions alive. In doing so, he hopes to help his nation fully decarbonize its fleets. Efforts include training local youths to build traditional Marshallese canoes (to replace small, motor-powered speedboats) and larger sailboats fitted with solar panels (to replace medium-size cargo ships). He was also an advisor on construction of the Juren Ae, a cargo sailboat (shown at right) inspired by traditional Marshallese vessels, which made its maiden voyage in 2024 and can carry 300 metric tons of cargo. The Marshall Islands Shipping Corporation hopes it offers a blueprint for cleaner cargo transportation across the Pacific; relative to a fuel-powered cargo ship, the vessel could decrease emissions by up to 80%. It’s “a beautiful big sister of our little canoes,” says Kelen.

Though hyperlocal, Kelen’s work is part of a global project from the International Maritime Organization to reduce emissions associated with cargo shipping to net zero by 2050. Beyond these tiny islands, much of the effort to meet the IMO’s goals focuses on replacing gasoline with alternatives such as ammonia, methane, nuclear power, and hydrogen. And there’s also what the Marshallese people have long relied on: wind power. It’s just one option on the table, but the industry cannot decarbonize quickly enough to meet the IMO’s goals without a role for wind propulsion, says Christiaan De Beukelaer, a political anthropologist and author of Trade Winds: A Voyage to a Sustainable Future for Shipping. “If you take time into consideration, wind is indispensable,” he says. Studies show that deploying wind power on vessels could lower the shipping industry’s carbon dioxide emissions by 20%.     

“What wind does is it effectively cuts out a few uncertainties,” says De Beukelaer—variables such as the fluctuation of fuel prices and the costs from any carbon pricing scheme the industry may adopt. The IMO is technology agnostic, meaning it sets the goals and safety standards but lets the market find the best ways to attain them. A spokesperson from the organization says wind propulsion is one of many avenues being explored.      

Sails can be used either to fully power a vessel or to supplement the motors as a way of reducing fuel consumption for large bulk carriers, oil tankers, and the roll-on/roll-off vessels used to transport airplanes and cars worldwide. Modern cargo sails come in several shapes, sizes, and styles, including wings, rotors, suction sails, and kites.

“If we’ve got five and a half thousand years of experience, isn’t this just a no-brainer?” says Gavin Allwright, secretary-general of the International Windship Association.

Older cargo boats with new sails can use propulsive energy from the wind for up to 30% of their power, while cargo vessels designed specifically for wind could rely on it for up to 80% of their needs, says Allwright, who is still working on standardized measurement criteria to figure out which combination of ship and sail model is most efficient.

“There are so many variables involved,” he says—from the size of the ship to the captain steering it. The 50th large vessel fitted with wind-harnessing tech set sail in October 2024, and he predicts that maritime wind power is set to boom by the beginning of 2026. 


drone view over a ship at sea with vertical metal sails
COURTESY OF OCEANBIRD

Hard wings

One of the more popular designs for cargo ships is a rigid sail—a hard, winglike structure that is placed vertically on top of the vessel. 

“It’s very much like an airplane wing,” says Niclas Dahl, managing director of Oceanbird, a Swedish company that develops these sails. Each one has a main and a flap, which creates a chamber where the wind speed is faster on the outside than the inside. In an aircraft, that discrepancy generates lift force, but in this case, says Dahl, it propels the ship forward. The wings are rigid, but they can be swiveled around and adjusted to capture the wind depending on where it’s coming from, and they can be folded and retracted close to the deck of the ship when it is nearing a dock.

One of Oceanbird’s sails—the 40-meter-high, 14-meter-wide Wing 560, made of high-strength steel, glass fiber, and recycled polyethylene terephthalate—could help cargo ships reduce fuel use by up to 10% per trip, according to the company’s calculations. Oceanbird is installing its first set of wings on a cargo vessel that transports cars, which was scheduled to be ready by the end of 2024.

Oceanbird, though, is just one manufacturer; by late 2024, eight cargo vessels propelled by hard wings were cruising around the world, most of them generalized bulk carriers and oil tankers.


COURTESY OF CARGOKITE

Kites

Other engineers and scientists are working to power cargo vessels with kites like those that propel paragliders. These kites are made from mixtures of UV-resistant polyester, and they are tethered to the ship’s bow and fly up to 200 to 300 meters above the ship, where they can make the best use of the constant winds at that altitude to basically tug the boat forward. To maximize lift, the kites are controlled by computers to operate in the sweet spot where wind is most constant. Studies show that a 400-square-meter kite can produce fuel savings of 9% to 15%.

“The main reason for us believing in kites is high-altitude winds,” says Tim Linnenweber, cofounder of CargoKite, which designs micro cargo ships that can be powered this way. “You basically have an increasing wind speed the higher you go, and so more consistent, more reliable, more steady winds.” 


COURTESY OF BOUND4BLUE

Suction sails

Initially used for airplanes in the 1930s, suction sails were designed and tested on boats in the 1980s by the oceanographer and diving pioneer Jacques Cousteau. 

Suction sails are chubby metal sails that look something like rotors but more oval, with a pointed side. And instead of making the whole sail spin around, the motor turns on a fan on the inside of the sail that sucks in wind from the outside. Cristina Aleixendri, cofounder of Bound4Blue, a Spanish company building suction sails, explains that the vent pulls air in through lots of little holes in the shell of the sail and creates what physicists call a boundary layer—a thin layer of air blanketing the sail and thrusting it forward. Bound4Blue’s modern model generates 20% more thrust per square meter of sail than Cousteau’s original design, says Aleixendri, and up to seven times more thrust than a conventional sail. 

Twelve ships fitted with a total of 26 suction sails are currently operating, ranging from fishing boats and oil tankers to roll-on/roll-off vessels. Bound4Blue is working on fitting six ships and has fitted four already—including one with the largest suction sail ever installed, at 22 meters tall.


COURTESY OF NORSEPOWER

Rotor sails

In the 1920s, the German engineer Anton Flettner had a vision for a wind-powered ship that used vertical, revolving metal cylinders in place of traditional sails. In 1926, a vessel using his novel design, known as the Flettner rotor, crossed the Atlantic for the first time. 

Flettner rotors work thanks to the Magnus effect, a phenomenon that occurs when a spinning object moves through a fluid, causing a lift force that can deflect the object’s path. With Flettner’s design, motors spin the cylinders around, and the pressure difference between the sides of the spinning object generates thrust forward, much like a soccer player bending the trajectory of a ball.

In a modern upgrade of the rotor sail, designed by the Finnish company Norsepower, the cylinders can spin up to 300 times per minute. This produces 10 times more thrust power than a conventional sail. Norsepower has fitted 27 rotor sails on 14 ships out at sea so far, and six more ships equipped with rotor sails from other companies set sail in 2024.

“According to our calculations, the rotor sail is, at the moment, the most efficient wind-assistive power when you look at eurocent per kilowatt-hour,” says Heikki Pöntynen, Norsepower’s CEO. Results from their vessels currently out at sea suggest that fuel savings are “anywhere between 5% to 30% on the whole voyage.” 

Sofia Quaglia is a freelance science journalist whose work has appeared in the New York Times, National Geographic, and New Scientist.

Read more

MIT Technology Review’s What’s Next series looks across industries, trends, and technologies to give you a first look at the future. You can read the rest of them here.

It looks as though 2025 will be a solid year for electric vehicles—at least outside the United States, where sales will depend on the incoming administration’s policy choices.

Globally, these cleaner cars and trucks will continue to eat into the market share of gas-guzzlers as costs decline, consumer options expand, and charging stations proliferate.

Despite all the hubbub about an EV slowdown last year, worldwide sales of battery EVs and plug-in hybrids likely hit a record high of nearly 17 million vehicles in 2024 and are expected to rise about 20% this year, according to the market research firm BloombergNEF. 

In addition, numerous automakers are preparing to deliver a variety of cheaper models to auto showrooms around the world. In turn, both the oil demand and the greenhouse-gas emissions stemming from vehicles on the roads are likely to peak over the next few years.

To be sure, the growth rate of EV sales has cooled, as consumers in many regions continue to wait for more affordable options and more convenient charging solutions. 

It also hasn’t helped that a handful of nations, like China, Germany, and New Zealand, have eased back the subsidies that were accelerating the rollout of low-emissions vehicles. And it certainly won’t do the sector any favors if President-elect Donald Trump follows through on his campaign pledges to eliminate government support for EVs and erect trade barriers that would raise the cost of producing or purchasing them.

Industry experts and climate scientists argue that the opposite should be happening right now. A critical piece of any realistic strategy to keep climate change in check is to fully supplant internal-combustion vehicles by around 2050. Without stricter mandates or more generous support for EVs, the world will not be on track to meet that goal, BloombergNEF finds and others confirm. 

“We have to push the car companies—and we also have to help them with incentives, R&D, and infrastructure,” says Gil Tal, director of the EV Research Center at the University of California, Davis.

But ultimately, the fate of EV sales will depend on the particular dynamics within specific regions. Here’s a closer look at what’s likely to steer the sector in the world’s three largest markets: the US, the EU, and China.

United States

The US EV market will be a mess of contradictions.

On the one hand, companies are spending tens of billions of dollars to build or expand battery, EV, and charger manufacturing plants across America. Within the next few years, Honda intends to begin running assembly lines retooled to produce EVs in Ohio, Toyota plans to begin producing electric SUVs at its flagship plant in Kentucky, and GM expects to begin cranking out its revived Bolts in Kansas, among dozens of other facilities in planning or under construction.

All that promises to drive down the cost of cleaner vehicles, boost consumer options, create tens of thousands of jobs, and help US auto manufacturers catch up with overseas rivals that are speeding ahead in EV design, production, and innovation.

But it’s not clear that will necessarily translate into lower consumer prices, and thus greater demand, because Trump has pledged to unravel the key policies currently propelling the sector. 

His plans are reported to include rolling back the consumer tax credits of up to $7,500 included in President Joe Biden’s signature climate bill, the Inflation Reduction Act. He has also threatened to impose stiff tariffs on goods imported from Mexico, China, Canada, and other nations where many vehicles or parts are manufactured. 

Tal says those policy shifts could more than wipe out any cost reductions brought about as companies scale up production of EV components and vehicles domestically. Tighter trade restrictions could also make it that much harder for foreign companies producing cheaper models to break into the US market.

That matters because the single biggest holdup for American consumers is the lofty expense of EVs. The most affordable models still start at around $30,000 in the US, and many electric cars, trucks, and SUVs top $40,000. 

“There’s nothing available in the more affordable options,” says Bhuvan Atluri, associate director of research at the MIT Mobility Initiative. “And models that were promised are nowhere to be seen.” (MIT owns MIT Technology Review.)

Indeed, Elon Musk still has yet to deliver on his 18-year-old “master plan” to produce a mass-market-priced Tesla EV, most recently calling a $25,000 model “pointless.” 

As noted, there is a revamped Chevy Bolt on the way for US consumers, as well as a $25,000 Jeep. But the actual price tags won’t be clear until these vehicles hit dealerships and the Trump administration translates its campaign rhetoric into policies. 

European Union

The EV story across the Europe Union is likely to be considerably more upbeat in the year to come. That’s because carbon dioxide emissions standards for passenger vehicles are set to tighten, requiring automakers in member countries to reduce climate pollution across their fleet by 15% from 2021 levels. Under the EU’s climate plan, these targets become stricter every five years, with the goal of eliminating emissions from cars and trucks by 2035.

Automakers intend to introduce a number of affordable EV models in the coming months, timed deliberately to help the companies meet the new mandates, says Felipe Rodríguez, Europe deputy managing director at the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT).

Those lower-priced models include Volkwagen’s ID.2all hatchback ($26,000) and the Fiat Panda EV ($28,500), among others.

On average, manufacturers will need to boost the share of battery-electric vehicles from 16% of total sales in 2023 to around 28% in order to meet the goal, according to the ICCT. Some European car companies are raising their prices for combustion vehicles and cutting the price tag on existing EVs to help hit the targets. And predictably, some are also arguing for the European Commission to loosen the rules.

Sales trends in any given country will still depend on local conditions and policy decisions. One big question is whether a new set of tax incentives or additional policy changes will help Germany, Europe’s largest auto market, revive the growth of its EV sector. Sales tanked there last year, after the nation cut off subsidies at the end of 2023.

EVs now make up about 25% of new sales across the EU. The ICCT estimates that they’ll surpass combustion vehicles EU-wide around 2030, when the emissions rules are set to significantly tighten again.

China

After decades of strategic investments and targeted policies, China is now the dominant manufacturer of EVs as well as the world’s largest market. That’s not likely to change for the foreseeable future, no matter what trade barriers the US or other countries impose.

In October, the European Commission enacted sharply higher tariffs on China-built EVs, arguing that the country has provided unfair market advantages to its domestic companies. That followed the Biden administration’s decision last May to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese vehicles, citing unfair trade practices and intellectual-property theft.

Chinese officials, for their part, argue that their domestic companies have earned market advantages by producing affordable, high-quality electric vehicles. More than 60% of Chinese EVs are already cheaper than their combustion-engine counterparts, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates.

“The reality—and what makes this a difficult challenge—is that there is some truth in both perspectives,” writes Scott Kennedy, trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 

These trade barriers have created significant risks for China’s EV makers, particularly coupled with the country’s sluggish economy, its glut of automotive production capacity, and the fact that most companies in the sector aren’t profitable. China also cut back subsidies for EVs at the end of 2022, replacing them with a policy that requires manufacturers to achieve fuel economy targets.

But the country has been intentionally diversifying its export markets for years and is well positioned to continue increasing its sales of electric cars and buses in countries across Southeast Asia, Latin America and Europe, says Hui He, China regional director at the ICCT. There are also some indications that China and the EU could soon reach a compromise in their trade dispute.

Domestically, China is now looking to rural markets to boost growth for the industry. Officials have created purchase subsidies for residents in the countryside and called for the construction of more charging facilities.

By most estimates, China will continue to see solid growth in EV sales, putting nearly 50 million battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles on the country’s roads by the end of this year.

Read more
1 … 862 863 864 865 866 … 3,373