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Trump Media and Technology Group, the social media conglomerate backed by US President Donald Trump, is considering integrating a crypto token and wallet into its video streaming site, Truth+.

“We’re exploring the introduction of a utility token within a Truth digital wallet that can initially be used to pay for Truth+ subscription costs, and later be applied to other products and services in the Truth ecosphere,” Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes wrote in an April 29 letter to shareholders.

He added that the crypto token and wallet would be part of a rewards program that Trump Media is exploring across its services, which include the social media platform Truth Social and the financial services platform Truth.Fi.

Trump Media first signaled plans for a potential crypto payments venture last November when it filed a trademark application with the US Patent and Trademark Office for computer software designed to function as a digital wallet, enable digital asset trading and process crypto payments on Truth.Fi.

Truth+ launched in October, offering movies and shows mainly targeting a politically conservative audience.

Trump Media signed a binding agreement with the crypto exchange Crypto.com and asset manager Yorkville America Digital to launch exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that will include crypto and stocks “with a Made in America focus” to launch on Truth.Fi.

The company said in January that it plans to invest up to $250 million of its cash reserves into a range of financial products, including Bitcoin (BTC) and other crypto tokens or crypto-related securities, which would be custodied by asset manager Charles Schwab.

More potential for conflict of interest

The launch of a Trump Media utility token would only heighten concerns about the president’s crypto-related ventures potentially conflicting with his duties. Trump, however, transferred his 59% stake into a trust last December.

Related: Trump’s first 100 days ‘worst in history’ despite crypto promises

Trump has also been criticized for backing the crypto platform World Liberty Financial, where he’s named the firm’s “Chief Crypto Advocate” and draws a portion of its profits.

Some senators have raised concerns that Trump’s influence on policy could benefit World Liberty, which is 60% owned by the Trump family.

Trump also received backlash for the controversial launch of his memecoin, Official Trump (TRUMP), on Jan. 18 — just two days before he re-entered the White House.

Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions

Key points:

• Weak labor and consumer data often precede Bitcoin rallies, leading some analysts to anticipate future economic stimulus programs.

• Job openings fell to 7.2 million in March versus the 7.5 million forecast and consumer confidence hit its lowest level since January 2021.

• If past patterns hold, Bitcoin could rally by mid-July and possibly reach $140,000 by October 2025.

Macroeconomic conditions have long been seen as a major influence on cryptocurrency prices. Generally, Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins perform poorly when investors fear that employment and consumer data are weakening. 

According to a US Labor Department JOLTS report released on April 29, job openings in March approached their lowest levels in four years. US employers posted 7.2 million vacancies in March, below the 7.5 million that economists had forecast. Meanwhile, US consumer confidence fell for the fifth straight month in April, reaching its lowest point since January 2021. 

Worsening conditions raise the chances that central banks will introduce economic stimulus measures, making the overall impact on cryptocurrency markets uncertain. Typically, the additional liquidity encourages investment in risk-on assets like Bitcoin, as more capital flows into the economy.

Future expectations matter more than today’s weak economic data

The last time the US experienced a drop in job openings and weakening consumer confidence was between January and June 2024. In the three months that followed, Bitcoin’s price moved between $53,000 and $66,000. Then, a 60% rally began in mid-October, pushing BTC above $100,000. The final result was positive, but it took more than 105 days for this effect to show in the cryptocurrency market.

Although these conditions may seem worrying at first, weaker labor and consumer sentiment are usually backward-looking. Financial markets and companies base their decisions on expectations for future economic growth, rather than just past data. Also, improved sentiment among crypto investors tends to come after there is some confirmation of better macroeconomic conditions. This explains why the 105-day lag is not unusual.

Before 2024, a similar situation occurred between January and June 2023, with declines in both job market data and consumer confidence. The next four months were difficult, as Bitcoin’s price fell 18% to $25,000. It took 115 days for the price to recover to $30,500 by late October. However, the following two months were very positive, with BTC gaining 45% to reach $43,900.

The last time in the past eight years when both the labor market and consumer confidence suffered significantly was between February 2020 and May 2020, right after the implementation of the COVID-19 lockdowns. This period saw Bitcoin briefly drop below $4,000 on March 13, 2020. As a result, a longer period of consolidation was expected before investors regained confidence in the crypto markets.

Related: Bitcoin acts like ‘store of value that it is’ amid Trump policy chaos: NYDIG

Could Bitcoin hit $140,000 by October?

Looking back at the macroeconomic data, there was no major impact on Bitcoin between May 2020 and September 2020, as its price increased from $8,900 to $10,600, a 20% gain. However, the next 60 days brought an impressive 85% rally to $19,700. For the third time, weaker labor and consumer sentiment data seemed to come before a rally in Bitcoin prices.

While the time between the lowest point of economic conditions and Bitcoin’s rally ranged from 105 to 130 days, the result was clear in all three cases. Therefore, if US job openings and consumer confidence improve from April 2025, it is likely that Bitcoin’s price will start to rise by mid-July. If history repeats itself, this could mean a minimum target of $140,000 by October 2025, but further positive macroeconomic data is needed to confirm this outlook.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bettors on prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are flipping bearish on the US economy. As of April 29, both platforms are predicting that the US will log an economic contraction during the first quarter of 2025 in an upcoming economic data release.

The US has logged positive growth figures every quarter since 2022, and a reversal in that trend could mark the start of a recession.

The pessimistic outlook marks a stark sentiment shift for prediction markets, which had recently anticipated a positive US growth report. On April 29, consensus Q1 US growth estimates on Kalshi, a US derivatives exchange, plunged from around 0.5% to -0.4% in less than 24 hours.

Meanwhile, Polymarket bettors are setting the odds of a US economic contraction in Q1 at around 70%. On April 28, they still had a mostly favorable outlook.

The shift comes one day after Canada, America’s second-largest trading partner, elected Liberal Mark Carney as prime minister. Carney has vowed to take a more hawkish stance in Canada’s ongoing trade war with the US.

Related: Analysts brace for Bitcoin slide on gloomy US manufacturing data

The markets are pegged to the outcome of an April 30 report by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, which issues official measures of America’s gross domestic product (GDP).

The report will provide the clearest view yet into the impact of US President Donald Trump’s controversial trade policies.

Prediction markets work by letting users trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes.

In 2024, event contracts proved to be as reliable as traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s election win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.

Tariff turmoil

On April 2, Trump announced plans to place sweeping tariffs on US imports. The president has since paused the rollout of tariffs on certain countries, but the prospect of a global trade war still looms.

The macroeconomic uncertainty has already weighed on US economic data.

In April, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index — a monthly survey of 250 US-based manufacturers — reported the sharpest declines in activity since 2020. 

Analysts said factories are bracing for the impact of Trump’s tariff plans, which could potentially raise production costs for manufacturers.

Magazine: Memecoin degeneracy is funding groundbreaking anti-aging research