

Key takeaways:
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BTC hit $97,900 due to soaring institutional investor demand, but futures pricing shows traders aren’t confident in a sustained rally.
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Macroeconomic risks and global trade tensions cap bullish sentiment despite $3.6 billion in spot BTC ETF inflows.
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BTC options lean bullish, suggesting big players expect upside, but their caution keeps leverage use low.
Bitcoin (BTC) broke out of a tight trading range between $93,000 and $95,600 on May 1, following six days of limited movement. Despite reaching its highest price in ten weeks at $97,930, sentiment remains neutral according to BTC derivatives indicators. This price action has occurred alongside significant net inflows into US spot exchange-traded Bitcoin funds (ETFs).
Some of the disappointment among traders can be attributed to the ongoing global tariff dispute, which is beginning to affect macroeconomic data. Bitcoin traders are concerned that, despite growing interest from institutional investors, fears of an economic recession could limit price performance. This concern reduces the likelihood of BTC reaching $110,000 or higher in 2025.
The annualized premium for Bitcoin’s two-month futures has remained between 6% and 7% over the past week, staying within the neutral range of 5% to 10%. Compared to January, when Bitcoin was trading near $95,000 and the futures premium was above 10%, traders’ sentiment has weakened. This data suggests there is less optimism, or at least less conviction, in further price gains toward $100,000 and above.
Gold’s performance outshone Bitcoin’s modest gains
Some market participants point to gold’s 20% rally, from $2,680 to $3,220, as a source of concern. Although Bitcoin recently surpassed silver’s $1.8 trillion market capitalization to become the seventh largest global tradable asset, gold’s surge to a massive $21.7 trillion valuation has overshadowed this achievement. Investors worry that Bitcoin’s strong correlation with the stock market has diminished the appeal of its “digital gold” narrative.
There is also a possibility that the $3.6 billion in net inflows to US spot ETFs over the past two weeks are being driven by delta-neutral strategies. In this scenario, the flows reflect Bitcoin holders moving to listed products or using derivatives for hedging. If so, the direct impact on price would be limited, which is consistent with Bitcoin’s modest 5% gain during this period.
To determine whether professional traders are comfortable with Bitcoin around $97,500, it is helpful to examine the BTC options market.
The BTC options 25% delta skew metric is currently near its lowest level since Feb. 15, indicating that whales and market makers are assigning higher odds to further upside from here. This marks a sharp reversal from three weeks ago, when put (sell) options traded at a premium.
Related: Bitcoin unsure as recession looms, US-China tariff talks kick off
Bitcoin derivatives’ resilience favors further BTC price gains
Overall, Bitcoin derivatives indicate moderate optimism. Traders generally expect further price gains, but bulls are refraining from using leverage. Some might argue that this creates the ideal conditions for a surprise rally, especially since the retest of $74,500 on April 9 did not significantly affect BTC derivatives.
The most important factor influencing Bitcoin’s performance remains the commercial relationship between the US and China. As long as the trade war continues, Bitcoin is likely to continue tracking the S&P 500 movements. While this environment may prevent Bitcoin from reaching a new all-time high in the near term, BTC derivatives are currently leaning slightly in favor of the bulls.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.


Senator Cynthia Lummis and at least one other Republican in Congress are reportedly critical of US President Donald Trump for offering the top holders of his memecoin a dinner and White House tour.
According to a May 2 CNBC report, Lummis said the idea that the US president was offering exclusive access to himself and the White House for people willing to pay for it “gives [her] pause.” She wasn’t the only member of the Republican Party to be critical of Trump’s memecoin perks, announced on April 23, roughly three months after the then-president-elect launched the TRUMP token.
“I don’t think it would be appropriate for me to charge people to come into the Capitol and take a tour,” said Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski, according to NBC News.
Despite Lummis’ reported “pause” over the president’s actions, on May 2, she posted a video to X of herself speaking on the Senate floor, saying she was “particularly pleased” by Trump’s support of legislation to establish a strategic Bitcoin (BTC) reserve in the United States. The Boosting Innovation, Technology, and Competitiveness through Optimized Investment Nationwide, or BITCOIN, Act would seemingly codify Trump’s executive order to create a national crypto reserve.
Related: House Democrats want ethics probe on Trump over crypto projects
The launch of the TRUMP coin on Jan. 17 was met with outrage from many lawmakers and figures in the crypto industry, who pointed to potential conflicts of interest and implications of allowing foreign actors to channel funds directly to Trump. The criticism continued after Trump announced that a group of the top memecoin holders would have the opportunity to apply for a White House tour and dinner.
“Trump once claimed he is so rich he cannot be bought,” said Craig Holman, a government ethics expert with the consumer advocacy organization Public Citizen. “But his obsession with money means he apparently can be bought for a meme.”
Calls for impeachment over ties to crypto
Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff, a Democrat, called for Trump’s impeachment during an April 25 town hall, claiming the memecoin dinner represented “selling access for what are effectively payments directly to him.” During his first term, Trump was impeached twice in the House of Representatives but acquitted after the Senate votes fell short of the two-thirds majority required for conviction.
At the time of publication, it was unclear who, if any, of the memecoin holders would attend the May 22 dinner with Trump. Usernames from the TRUMP leaderboard have led to speculation that staunch supporters like Tron founder Justin Sun and Tesla CEO Elon Musk could be among the attendees. As of May 2, neither the individuals nor the companies have made any formal announcements.
Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions
This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology.
A senior State Department official demanded records of communications with journalists, European officials, and Trump critics
A previously unreported document distributed by senior US State Department official Darren Beattie reveals a sweeping effort to uncover all communications between the staff of a small government office focused on online disinformation and a lengthy list of public and private figures—many of whom are longtime targets of the political right.
The document, originally shared in person with roughly a dozen State Department employees in early March, requested staff emails and other records with or about a host of individuals and organizations that track or write about foreign disinformation—including Atlantic journalist Anne Applebaum, former US cybersecurity official Christopher Krebs, and the Stanford Internet Observatory—or have criticized President Donald Trump and his allies, such as the conservative anti-Trump commentator Bill Kristol.
The broad requests for unredacted information felt like a “witch hunt,” one official says—one that could put the privacy and security of numerous individuals and organizations at risk. Read the full story.
—Eileen Guo
The US has approved CRISPR pigs for food
Most pigs in the US are confined to factory farms where they can be afflicted by a nasty respiratory virus that kills piglets. The illness is called porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome, or PRRS.
A few years ago, a British company called Genus set out to design pigs immune to this germ using CRISPR gene editing. Not only did they succeed, but its pigs are now poised to enter the food chain following approval of the animals this week by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Read the full story.
—Antonio Regalado
This article is from The Checkup, MIT Technology Review’s weekly health and biotech newsletter. To receive it in your inbox every Thursday, sign up here.
The must-reads
I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology.
1 The US has closed a China tariff loophole
The costs of plenty of goods are likely to shoot up in response. (NYT $)
+ But China is still extremely dependent on US-made car chips. (WSJ $)
+ Chinese retail giant Temu is pivoting its business model. (Bloomberg $)
+ Sweeping tariffs could threaten the US manufacturing rebound. (MIT Technology Review)
2 DOGE’s future is looking uncertain
It’s fallen far short of its goal to slash $2 trillion in spending. (WP $)+ No more late-night ice cream for Elon Musk. (CNBC)
+ DOGE’s tech takeover threatens the safety and stability of our critical data. (MIT Technology Review)
3 Microsoft is hiking the price of its Xbox games console
By a whopping 27% in the US. (The Guardian)
+ Apple estimates that the tariffs will add $900 million to its costs. (WP $)
+ But Apple isn’t announcing any price increases (yet.) (TechCrunch)
+ Here’s what is—and isn’t—getting pricier under the tariffs. (Vox)
4 Tech giants have been accused of deliberately distorting AI rankings
A new study claims they’re making untrue claims about the best models. (New Scientist $)
+ It accuses benchmark organisation LM Arena of unfair practices. (TechCrunch)
+ The site’s operators refute the findings, saying its conclusions are wrong. (Ars Technica)
5 Europe wants to replicate America’s military-industrial complex
And US contractors are likely to benefit. (WSJ $)
+ US soldiers may finally be able to repair their own equipment. (404 Media)
+ Generative AI is learning to spy for the US military. (MIT Technology Review)
6 Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI will move forward
A judge rejected OpenAI’s attempt to dismiss the case. (FT $)
7 What a post-4Chan internet looks like
What was once contained to a tiny corner of the web is now commonplace. (New Yorker $)
+ How to fix the internet. (MIT Technology Review)
8 How North Korea infiltrates the US
Fully remote coders are not who they appear to be. (Wired $)
9 You no longer need a password to open a new Microsoft account
The company’s gone passkey-first. (The Verge)
10 Fecal transplants are a possible way to treat gut disease 
And the approach is becoming more mainstream. (Undark)
+ How bugs and chemicals in your poo could give away exactly what you’ve eaten. (MIT Technology Review)
Quote of the day
“What about the next Taylor Swift?”
—US District Court Judge Vince Chhabria questions how powerful musical AI tools will affect up-and-coming musicians during Meta’s copyright court battle, Wired reports.
One more thing

Your boss is watching
Working today—whether in an office, a warehouse, or your car—can mean constant electronic surveillance with little transparency, and potentially with livelihood-ending consequences if your productivity flags.
But what matters even more than the effects of this ubiquitous monitoring on privacy may be how all that data is shifting the relationships between workers and managers, companies and their workforce.
We are in the midst of a shift in work and workplace relationships as significant as the Second Industrial Revolution of the late 19th and early 20th centuries. And new policies and protections may be necessary to correct the balance of power. Read the full story.
—Rebecca Ackermann
We can still have nice things
A place for comfort, fun and distraction to brighten up your day. (Got any ideas? Drop me a line or skeet ’em at me.)
+ This is cool: scientists have successfully triggered a lightning strike using a drone. 
+ It’s the age-old question—why do so many men refuse to wear shorts in hot weather?
+ The American accent that’s hardest for British actors to pull off seems to be either New York or Boston.
+ Happy 50th birthday to David Beckham, best of British.
